VEB: Russian seasonally adjusted GDP may rise 0.2% in Jul–Sep

MOSCOW, Aug 15 (PRIME) -- Russia’s seasonally adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) may rise by 0.2% on the quarter in July–September, and the agricultural sector will be the main growth driver, state Vnesheconombank (VEB) said in a macroeconomic forecast on Monday.

VEB also expects seasonally adjusted GDP to fall 0.5% on the year in July–September, and to decrease 0.1% on the quarter and 0.4% on the year in October–December. The bank expects Russia’s economy to fall 0.7% in 2016.

“We expect that the economy may grow in the third quarter of 2016 already. The agriculture is likely to be the main growth factor, because a record grain harvest is expected. Dynamics of the agriculture may increase GDP by 0.2–0.3 percentage points, but the influence will be temporary and come to naught by the end of the year,” VEB said.

The economy may see a sustainable growth no earlier than in 2017 if oil prices rise, VEB’s experts said.

According to preliminary data of the Federal State Statistics Service, the economy fell 0.6% on the year in April–June.

A representative of the Economic Development Ministry said earlier that Russia’s seasonally adjusted GDP fell 0.2% on the quarter in April–June, but it is stopped falling during the quarter: it went down 0.2% in April and 0–0.1% in May and June. The ministry believes that Russia’s GDP will fall 0.2% this year.

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